The End of TPLF/EPRDF

Bad governance, corruption and inequality is caused by centralization of political power in Addis Ababa. If the 1995 TPLF/EPRDF drafted constitution implemented properly the impact of bad governance, corruption and inequality will be local and state proplem (not federal proplem) and it can be manageable and minimized easily. The federal constitution give power to the local people. But centralization in the form of “Revolutionary Democracy” and “Developmental State” give power to few elites who based in Addis Ababa. Revolutionary democracy and developmental state are governing manuals that replace the federalist constitution.

Centralization of political power happened first because of Eritrea and Ethiopia border war then because of PFDJ no peace no war policy. PFDJ had causing the problem and it is inflaming the popular uprising by financing the media campaign of Oromo and Amhara and by coordinating Amhara and Oromo groups activity.

Instead working with Tigrigna people of Eritrea to end No peace, No war PFDJ policy that TPLF/EPRDF leadership choose to ignore it like it has no any impact at all in Ethiopia. But No peace No war has destroying Tigrigna people of Eritrea, Tigray people and TPLF together equally.

On October 21 2015 London Financial Times reported Chinese investment in Africa plunge by 84% in the first half of 2015 compared with a year earlier. The export and investment led rapid Chinese economic growth has ended forever with it the cheap and easy Chinese loans and investments to Africa governments and companies especially to Ethiopia’s.

On 16 December 2015 USA Federal Reserve Bank increased its interest rate almost after 10 years. This increase was the end of 10 years cheap and easy Western money with it the cheap and easy Western loans and investments to Africa governments and companies especially to Ethiopia’s. The end of Western and Chinese ten years easy and cheap money is ending Ethiopia’s ten years construction boom forever. The party is over for TPLF/EPRDF. No more developmental government.

TPLF abundant federalism first to be revolutionary democracy then when it didn’t work became developmental government because suddenly got aces to global finance. Now the global finance is drying up and the debt are piling up. And the hungry 100 million young population are demanding justice, jobs and opportunity.

The flow of dollars to Ethiopia as loans, aid, investments, remittances etc will reduce significantly. Ethiopian government will be forced to introduce austerity programme to pay back foreign debts and to give priority to finish and sustain its big flagships projects.

Tens of thousands government workers will lose their jobs. Millions of workers who work in construction industry directly and indirectly will lose their jobs.

Already living cost is unaffordable to middle and low ranking government workers including army, police and intelligence services. It been few years since TPLF/EPRDF lost the propaganda and media war completely.

According CIA Ethiopia has 99.5 million people and 93% are less than the age 0f 54. Ethiopia increase its population by 3.8 million every year. Farming couldn’t employ all these young population anymore because it is limited size. Ethiopia has to create four million manufacturing and service jobs a year to create employment which is impossible.

         Extreme inequality, lack of opportunity, unemployment, low wage, corruption, bad governance, social media, satellite TV and radio, ethnic tribal and clan tension in a tens of millions very young population are very dangerous recipes for tsunami storm. When the storm comes no army, police, intelligence, propaganda can stop it. TPLF/EPRDF is waiting for tsunami storm to happen without preparation because it doesn’t know the tsunami storm is coming.

PFDJ is has created a united front among Amhara, Oromo, Tigray, Somali etc groups against TPLF/EPRDF. They are coordinating their resources, media campaign, intelligence work and military activity.

Shock Therapy or electroconvulsive therapy is a psychiatric treatment in which seizures are electrically induced in patients to provide relief from psychiatric illnesses.

TPLF has suffer from complacency. The complacency had became arrogance. Arrogance means rejecting the reality, looking down on people, and your opponent.

The Oromo had gave TPLF shock therapy treatment. If they are sane they should learn and focus solving Tigray problems. Global, regional and national reality is against statuesque and TPLF/EPRDF. TPLF/EPRDF must acknowledge reality and must be adjust to reality in order to protect Tigray people strategic national interest and to deal with it as it is. Golden rule of life: never underestimate your rivals and the power of a simple tools..
Oromo and others struggle against TPLF/EPRDF had reached in irreversible stage. May be they can delayed it but EPRDF/TPLF couldn’t crash popular Oromo and others uprising for long time anymore. The fear factor has gone forever.

Those Tegaru who invest heavily and those Tegaru who made Addis Ababa and other parts of Ethiopia their home should think twice. አብዘይ ዓዱ ዝሃብተመን አብ ጸልማት ዝሳዕስዓን ሓደ ኢዮ. እቲ ምክኒያቱስ ብልቢ ዝኮርዓሉን ዝሕጎሰሉን ዝፈልጠሉን ዘድንቀሉን ዘክብረሉን የለን. These wisdom our forefathers is 100% true specially if it is in Africa. It is happening now in countries surrounding Ethiopia like  Sudan, Yemen, Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya, Central Africa, Burundi, Saudi Arabia etc between different religion, sects, ethnics, tribes, clans etc.

It already started in Gonder-Ethiopia. On 18 December 2015 Voice of America interviewed one ትግራዋይ that he is living in camp with more than 400 Tegaru to get protection and to save his life after Tegaru business and properties looted by EPRDF militias men by making ብሔረ ኣምሓራን ብሔረሰብ ቅማንትን  conflict as excuse.

The notion that Ethiopian ethnics, tribes or clans are fighting each other because of TPLF divide and rule is not true. There was war between tribes and clans in the entire human history including Ethiopia. Tribes and clans fight for hunting territory and animal grazing land.  Today clans and tribes have to fight each other for limited resources and opportunities because the population exploding without parallel economic growth.

The difference is that it is reported in media because of aces to mobile phone. Tribal is tribal. Clan is clan. They don’t trust each other. Look how is Africa. Full stop. If the Oromo became independent nation-state then the 80 Oromo tribes will start fighting each other or will live in permanent crisis.

Wisdom our forefathers say ካብ ጉይይ ምዉዓል ክሳድ ምሓዝ.  By governing the Oromo and other Ethiopian nations for 25 years TPLF doesn’t bring meaningful development to Tigray. There is no point fighting the Oromo. Lets remove the PFDJ evil and lets industrialize Tigray/Eritrea. The material prosperity, opportunity, spirituality, human dignity and peace of Tegaru is in their land.

I am Tigrigna nationalist and I represent Tigrigna nationalist group. I was lobbying TPLF/EPRDF leaders for more than 3 years to help us  has to help us overthrow PFDJ and to correct TPLF policy in Eritrea. Like all African countries Eritrea problem is not luck of democracy, human right, constitution, free press etc. Most African countries have more democracy, human right, constitution, free press etc more than Western countries but they have 1000 times more poverty, corruption, refugee, disease, illiteracy, crime, family breakdowns etc problem and ethnic tribe and clan conflict etc than Eritrea has now. Eritrea problem is there is no consent among the nine Eritrean ethnics about ownership of the country, identity, history, culture and value system issues.

More than any power PFDJ had diagnosed Eritrea and other African countries problem perfectly. The problem of PFDJ is the prescription or solution has for Eritrea and other African countries. Its solution idea is abolition of national, religious, tribal, clan, regional and local identities and replace them by universalism, internationalism and multiculturalism. The problem with  universalism, internationalism and multiculturalism is that they are unpractical, untested theories and they are against human evolution. We humans are social animals.

TPLF/EPRDF never understand or know PFDJ way of thinking. It means TPLF/EPRDF doesn’t know its enemy what stand for. It is impossible to fight enemy you don’t know or understand. TPLF believe PFDJ is fascist, dictator without ideology, mafia, ኑኡስ ብርጅዋ, ትምኽሕተኛ, ጸቢብ, dismantler of Ethiopia etc but there is no a single evidence that prove these TPLF ideas. PFDJ is not one of the above names or ideas.

The greatest ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu wrote in his The Art of War book over 2000 years ago “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not to fear the result of hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

There are three competing political ideas or ideologies in Eritrea. First is universalism, internationalism and multiculturalism or non discriminatory citizenship base nation-state which is official ideology of PFDJ and the Tigrigna led opposition in exiles but this ideology has zero popular support among Tigrigna people of Eritrea. PFDJ has power but has no influence in Tigrigna people. The exiled Tigrigna led organization have no power and influence in Tigrigna people. The exiled Tigrigna led opposition groups difference with PFDJ is only about secondary issues like election, democracy, free press etc.

 

There is no a single Tigrigna village in Eritrea that want to give farming land, residential plot or their daughter for marriage  for Muslim Eritrean because he/she is Eritrean citizen and hero and disable war veteran.  But by following and obeying their ሕጊ እንዳባ and ancient tradition that they are happy to give farming land, residential plot or their daughter for any ትግራዋይ who settled in their village. Or there is no any Muslim Eritrean that he put his Eritrean identity above or before his Muslim identity.

The second ideology is Arabism and Islamism. This ideology has popular support in Eritrea Muslims. But because Eritrean Muslims are fragmented and disfranchised by tribal and clan structure it has no meaningful influence or role in Eritrean politics. But they are very useful tools for PFDJ and the exiled Tigrigna led groups against Tigrigna nationalists.

The third ideology is Tigrigna nationalism or knows as አግኣዚያዉነት or ትግራይትግርኚ. This is the only powerful potent ideology because it is a commonsense idea that any uneducated Tigrigna peasant either in Tigray or Eritrea understands and deeply and strongly feels. Because of this reason PFDJ and Tigrigna led opposition in exiles groups with the help of Eritrean Arabic and Islamist groups political, intelligence, military, economical, social, cultural works are about destroying Tigrigna nationalism by the name national unity before it creating leadership and organizations. Tigrigna nationalists like Weldeab Weldemaram, Tukue Yhdego, Kidne Kiflu, Niezgi Kuflu etc have hunted down like rats, edit out from history, denied burials in their land, forced or systematically exiled or marginalized etc.

Sadly TPLF is helping PFDJ by helping its ideological allies and by refusing to listen and help Tigrigna nationalist. By doing so TPLF is committing suicide with it that it is endangering Tigray people life’s, freedoms, the right to self determination and future.

Change will came only by Tigrigna people of Eritrea in Eritrea. History proved again and again that Tigrigna people of Eritrea is very proud nationalistic and  traditionalist people. TPLF/EPRDF has no military, political, economical, moral, diplomatic capacity to fight PFDJ, TPDM, Amhara, Oromo, Somali, Sidama etc groups and popular uprisings that have strong social base and legitimate issue in their people at the same time. But TPLF/EPRDF can survive as organization and can protect and advance Tigray people strategic national interests if PFDJ removed by Tigrigna nationalist.

If you love ትግራይ and you care about Tigray people please urge or lobby TPLF decision and policy makers to help Eritrean nationalist group by writing, calling, emailing, asking them etc directly.

We are not asking TPLF to fight on our behalf. We have the capacity and will power to remove PFDJ. Just we need a free space without interference in our inside organization and financial, military (weapons only) and diplomatic support.

We have unimaginable abundance natural resources, strategic locations, high level civilization history, the heavenly pleasant weather and picturesque land escape and above all a just cause and the only people in Africa that has strong common national purpose.

We are working hard day and night to get TPLF attention to save it before too late. Please help us bringing TPLF to reality and rational mind set. If not it will fall with one to two years. If TPLF fall, it will be a disaster for Tigray people and Tigrigna people of Eritrea. It is very urgent. Please help us in saving Tigray people life’s and future.